Benin Republic, Rwanda, and Libya: A Tight Race for AFCON 2025
Benin Republic, Rwanda, and Libya are currently battling intensely for a single spot at AFCON 2025, set to take place in Morocco.
As the qualifying series for Group D heads into its final matchday, the competition remains wide open. The Cheetahs, Amavubi, and the Mediterranean Knights are all still in the race for a coveted spot at the tournament.
However, only one will join Nigeria, who have already secured their qualification with a 1-1 draw against Gernot Rohr’s side at the Felix Houphouet-Boigny Stadium in Abidjan.
With Monday’s decisive matches quickly approaching, each team has a realistic chance of booking their ticket to AFCON 2025.
However, in the end, only one team will succeed in advancing alongside the Super Eagles to Morocco.
Let’s dive into what each country needs to clinch the final qualification spot.
What Result Does the Benin Republic Need to Qualify?
Benin Republic finds itself in a strong position heading into the final matchday. Currently, they hold second place with seven points, thanks to two wins and a draw. To secure a spot at AFCON 2025, Benin has several possible pathways.
A win or even a draw against Libya in Tripoli would guarantee their place in Morocco. However, if Benin suffers a loss, they must ensure that the defeat is by no more than a two-goal margin while also managing to score at least once.
This is crucial because, despite losing the reverse fixture 2-1 to Libya, a similar scoreline in Tripoli would still see Benin qualify based on overall goal difference.
On the other hand, if Benin loses by two clear goals, their hopes of reaching AFCON 2025 after a six-year absence would be dashed.
In that scenario, Libya would likely qualify on goal difference in head-to-head encounters among the tied teams.
Since their first AFCON appearance in Tunisia in 2004, Benin has reached the finals four times, with their best showing being a quarter-final finish at Egypt in 2019.
What Does Rwanda Need to Secure AFCON 2025 Qualification?
For Rwanda, the path to AFCON 2025 is clear but challenging. A win over Nigeria at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium in Uyo would secure their spot, provided Benin fails to win against Libya.
Torsten Spittler’s side will draw confidence from their recent 1-0 away triumph over Lesotho during the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers. With Nigeria already qualified, Rwanda hopes that coach Eguavoen might field a weakened squad.
However, if Rwanda manages to defeat the Super Eagles and Benin draws against Libya, Rwanda would still miss out on AFCON 2025 due to goal difference in head-to-head matchups with Benin.
The Amavubi endured a heavy 3-0 defeat against Benin in Abidjan but later secured a crucial 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture in Kigali. Thus, to secure their AFCON 2025 ticket, Rwanda must first overcome Nigeria and then hope that Benin loses in Tripoli.
Since their debut at AFCON 2004, where they finished ninth, Rwanda has yet to qualify again for Africa’s most prestigious tournament. Overcoming Nigeria in Uyo would certainly be a historic feat for the Amavubi.
How Can Libya Qualify for AFCON 2025?
Libya faces a tough but not impossible path to AFCON 2025. Coach Nasser Al-Hadiri’s team must secure a win over the Benin Republic by at least two goals while hoping Rwanda fails to pull off a victory in Nigeria.
Libya’s qualification hopes appeared slim after the Confederation of African Football sanctioned them, resulting in the loss of three points and three goals due to the mistreatment of the Nigerian national team.
Despite this setback, Libya’s recent 1-0 away win against Rwanda and Benin’s draw with Nigeria have revived their chances. They now sit at the bottom of Group D with just one win from five matches.
If Libya manages to snatch the AFCON 2025 ticket from both Benin and Rwanda, it would mark one of the most dramatic turnarounds in African football.
Historically, Libya has qualified for the AFCON three times, with their best performance being a runners-up finish in 1982 when they hosted the tournament. Should they qualify for AFCON 2025, it would be their first appearance in over a decade.
Finally…
As the final day of the qualifiers looms, fans are eagerly anticipating the outcome. The battle for the remaining spot in AFCON 2025 is far from settled. Benin, Rwanda, and Libya each have strong reasons to believe they can secure that last ticket to Morocco.
Whether it comes down to goal difference, head-to-head matchups, or a last-minute surge, only one of these teams will join Nigeria in representing Group D at AFCON 2025.
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